Football Betting Brain
2021年11月18日Register here: http://gg.gg/wxcic
*Football Betting Odds
*Football Betting Nfl
*Football Betting Brain Teasers
*Football Betting Brain Games
Betfair Betting Podcast Football.Only Bettor Episode 46: He might have a Lego head but there is a brain in there. Football Betting Line A betting line is a posted number that the online Sportsbook posts for each game in a certain sport. The betting line will have different wager options within the betting line. Bookmakers will post odds on who they think will win the game. One of the first things you should understand about betting on football is the fact that there are several different types of wagers that can be placed. You won’t necessarily use all the different types. On BetBrain you will find football predictions for the Eredivisie, the English Premier League, Spanish LaLiga, German & Austian Bundesliga and much more – with of course the tips for betting on football, tennis, Hochey. Tips, forecasts and predictions for football. Over 2.5 Goal bet is a winner. The simple reality is that it choosing correctly from two options is easier than choosing correctly from 3 possibilities. In an Over or under 2.5 goal bet there is no draw. 3 or more goals wins an over bet and 2 or less goals wins an under 2.5 goal bet.The novice football bettor may be a bit overwhelmed when they first create an account at an online Sportsbook and then look at the posted NFL betting lines. Most bets with your buddy will be on what NFL team will win straight up or who will cover the spread. This guide give you the basic types of Football wager types associated with a betting line. Football Betting Line A betting line is a posted number that the online Sportsbook posts for each game in a certain sport. The betting line will have different wager options within the betting line. Bookmakers will post odds on who they think will win the game. The betting line will usually show a favorite and an underdog. The example below will show what a NFL betting line looks like at one of our recommended Sportsbooks Bovada.com . Moneyline Wager The Moneyline wager means you are picking who you think will win the game straight up. In the example above, the Moneyline odds on the New York Giants are +140. In this example the New York Giants are the underdog. The +140 means that for every $100 you wager you will win $140. You do not have to wager $100. The betting line is a payout ratio odds and will be scaled to your actual wager. The favorite in this example is the Detroit Lions denoted by the -160. You have to risk $160 to win $100. NFL Point Spread Wager The Point Spread is one of the most popular wagers in NFL Football betting. You need to cover the Point Spread to win your wager. For example the Favorite in this game is the Detroit Lions as they have a point spread of -3(-110). For you to win your wager, the Detroit Lions would have a final score beating the New York Giants by 4 or more points. The (-110) in brackets is the ’juice’ or ’vig’ on the wager. Sportsbooks take a standard 10% commission on all wagers. If there is not a -110 beside the point spread it is usually assumed 10% juice. The Underdog in the point spread is the New York Giants +3(-110). For you to win your wager the NY Giants could lose the game by 2 points or less. If the final is score is a margin of 3 points then the wager would be graded a PUSH and the wager amount would be returned to you. NFL Total Wager A Total Wager is a bet on the OVER/UNDER for the Total Score at the end of the game of the combined teams. In this betting line the TOTAL is 33 (-110). For you to WIN the OVER TOTAL wager the final score would have to be 34 points combined for both teams. If the TOTAL score is exactly 33 then the wager would be graded a PUSH and your wager would be returned to you. The NFL betting line in the above example is for the full game. An NFL betting line can also be posted for 1st Quarters(1Q), 1st Half(1H) and 2ND Half(2H). Not all Sportsbooks post 1Q lines for all football games. Professional bettors are known to profit on 1H and 1Q wagers because they are able to handicap NFL games accurately because many NFL coaches script their first half plays. Moreover, 2H bets are very popular because you are able to see how well the team is playing in the first half. Circled NFL Line Occasionally you will see a GREEN or RED box around a NFL betting line. When a NFL Point Spread, Moneyline or Total betting line is boxed RED or GREEN this is referred to as a CIRCLED Line. It is also referred to as GREEN or RED Boxed. Green Circle NFL Betting Line A GREEN circle means that there are higher bet limits on the betting line and there are no betting restrictions. Very popular NFL nationally televised games are usually GREEN circled due to their popularity. Red Circle NFL Betting Line A RED Circle line is one of the most common questions asked by new online Football gamblers. A RED circle line means that there are lower bet limits (usually $500 bet max.) and the bet option cannot be included in Parlays, Teasers, IF Bets and Round Robin Bets. Bookmakers RED circle games to reduce Risk to the Sportsbook. An NFL Game is usually RED circled when a key player is uncertain to play like if QB Peyton Manning was uncertain to play right up to game time. A game may also be RED Circled due to severe whether conditions that could affect the OVER/UNDER Line. Bookmakers will not tell you why they circle games. Each Bookmaker will have their own policy that is set by their risk management team that is headed by their head line maker. Most RED boxed games are removed several hours before kickoff or when a Sportsbook gets accurate information to put out new NFL betting line.
Do you know what sets the most successful football bettors in the world apart from the rest? You might think that it’s their extensive football knowledge, or their excellent ability to make predictions. Maybe you think it’s because they’re really good with numbers, or that they’re able to consistently pick the right strategies to use.
Everything mentioned above will definitely help! It’s very difficult to make money from football betting without knowing a lot about the sport itself and the teams and players. It’s also difficult without certain skills and a solid understanding of the strategy involved. Still, none of these things are what REALLY make the difference.
The very best football bettors excel at objective thinking. They’re able to calmly assess all the relevant information at their disposal, and make rational decisions based on their findings. This is ultimately the key to making money.
And it’s a LOT harder than it sounds.
It’s easy to believe we’re thinking objectively when we’re actually not. There are all kinds of things that influence our decision-making processes, most of which we’re totally oblivious to. Our emotions can affect us without us knowing, for example, and there are various aspects of our own psychology that do the same.
To be more specific, our brains are prone to what are known as cognitive biases. These biases can essentially force us into thinking irrationally or illogically. They’re intrinsically part of our psyche, and they typically affect us subconsciously. They can have a huge impact on the way we interpret information, the way we act and the way we make decisions.
Our cognitive biases can, and do, affect many areas of our lives: sometimes in a positive way, but sometimes in a negative way. In this article we look at some of the biases that affect us when we’re betting on football. We explain how they manifest themselves in relation to our betting, and how we can try to overcome any negative effects they may have.Desirability Bias
This is one of the most common biases that affect football bettors. Since most people who bet on football are also fans of the sport, they often have their favorite teams and players. They probably even have teams and players that they’d rather do without. This is an acceptable attitude for a football fan, but it can create problems from a betting perspective. Betting crypto coin.
In the context of betting, desirability bias refers to our tendency to bet on what we WANT to happen. It’s basically a more scientific term for “wishful thinking” or “betting with your heart and not your head.” Whether they realize it or not, most sports bettors are influenced by desirability bias at some point in their career.
Recreational bettors have nothing to worry about. They aren’t overly concerned about whether or not they win or lose anyways, since they bet mostly for the entertainment. They want to win, of course, but they don’t mind losing as long as they’re having fun. And, for many of them, their idea of fun is simply to put a few bucks down on their favorite team each week. Every time their team loses, they have to deal with the fact that they are also losing money. On the other hand, every time their team wins, they are rewarded with some extra cash in their pockets.
Desirability bias IS an issue for serious bettors though. When our goal is to make money, we can’t really afford to let our hearts rule our heads. This will almost certainly cost us money in the long run, as we won’t be making rational decisions. Thankfully, there’s a relatively easy way for us to prevent the negative effects of desirability bias.Avoid betting on games involving our favorite team(s).
This is a very simple solution, but it’s an effective one. It does mean missing out on a few betting opportunities, but that’s a small price to pay if it saves us money. Anyway, there are plenty of other football games to bet on. It shouldn’t be too difficult to avoid games that involve our favorite teams. It’s also advisable to avoid any teams that we particularly dislike too.
Of course, it’s not necessary to take this fairly drastic step when we’re confident that we can make rational decisions even when we’re emotionally invested in the outcome. We just have to make sure that we’re always aware of the potential for desirability bias. We must also be careful that we don’t overcompensate by always looking to bet AGAINST our favorite teams. This can be just as costly.
It shouldn’t come as a surprise to hear that people hate to lose. What might surprise you though is the fact that people hate to lose significantly more than they enjoy winning. This can backed up by numerous studies. It basically means that our brains are wired in such a way that the negative feelings we get from losing something are far stronger than the positive feelings we get from gaining something.
Our negative feelings towards losing are so strong that loss aversion becomes inevitable. Instinctively, we always try to avoid a loss, and that affects our ability to make sound decisions. In theory it prevents us from being reckless, but it can also lead to us making bad decisions.Most electrical items come with a standard warranty that covers breakdown or failure in the first year or two. When buying these items, we usually have the option to purchase an extended warranty. These extended warranties rarely provide true value for our money, but many of us purchase them anyway. That’s a prime example of loss aversion at play. We’re so “scared” of losing the item (i.e. when it stops working) that we’re prepared to pay higher odds than necessary to prevent that loss.
Buying an extended warranty at an inflated price won’t cause too much damage. However, it serves to highlight the fact that loss aversion can actually COST us money. Our determination to avoid losses, whether consciously or sub-consciously, affects our ability to think rationally and make balanced decisions. We don’t properly compare the risk versus reward, but instead we just focus on what’s at risk.
This can be disastrous when we’re betting on football (or any sport for that matter), as calculating risk versus reward is EXACTLY what we should be doing. If we’re too concerned about exposing ourselves to potential losses, then we’ll never make good betting decisions.
We realize that a bettor being susceptible to loss aversion doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. After all, the purpose of betting is to risk losing in exchange for the chance of winning. If we were THAT worried about losing, we wouldn’t be betting at all would we? This isn’t necessarily true. Even people who don’t bet are prepared to accept the risk of losing for the chance of winning. (Consider the extended warranty example we explained above.) Everyone can be affected by loss aversion, just in different ways.
There are two main ways in which loss aversion can affect us when we’re betting on football.
*A tendency to favor the “safer” option.
*A desire to recover losses.
A tendency to favor the safer option makes perfect sense. If we’re worried about losing, then we’d naturally feel inclined to always bet on the most likely outcome. And this is exactly what a lot of bettors do. Loss aversion is one reason why so many people only ever bet on the favorite. Backing the favorite is perceived to offer the best chance of winning, and therefore minimize the risk of losing.
The problem is that backing the favorite doesn’t ALWAYS offer the best chance of winning when betting on football. The logic holds true when backing the favorite on the moneyline, but most football bettors bet on the point spread. Point spreads are designed to give each team a (theoretically) equal chance of covering. So when point spreads are involved, backing the favorite to cover requires the same amount of risk as backing the underdog to cover.Football Betting Odds
In any case, as bettors we shouldn’t be concerned with looking for the least risky option. Instead, our focus should be to identify where the value lies. This means evaluating the risk versus reward, and getting our money down when the potential reward outweighs the risk. Sometimes this will mean placing a high risk/high reward wager. Other times it will mean placing a low risk/low reward wager. The point is that we must try to ignore our natural instinct for loss aversion, and focus on finding value instead. This is something we explain more thoroughly in the article listed below.
Loss aversion doesn’t just affect how we think BEFORE making our bets. It also affects how we think afterwards. When we win, we’re obviously happy. And when we lose, we’re obviously disappointed. On top of being disappointed, our natural instinct is to try to recover our losses.
Successful football bettors tend to be extremely disciplined, so they’re able to overcome that instinct. Bettors that aren’t so disciplined, however, can act impulsively and start chasing their losses. This often leads to even more losses, and if this cycle continues to repeat itself, they can lose A LOT of money. We’re sad to report that many bettors have actually lost their entire bankroll this way. Some have even lost money that they can’t afford to lose.
Ironically, this loss is a direct result of loss aversion. By following our instinct to recover our losses, we can actually end up losing even more. So it’s vital that we overcome our instinct here, and remain disciplined at all times. We have to accept our losses and just move on. Of course, this is easier said than done. The key is to set ourselves strict rules about how much we stake and when, and then make sure we stick to them. This is the basic concept behind bankroll management, which we discuss in detail in the following article.Confirmation Bias
We all rely on our own beliefs and opinions when betting on football. They’re ultimately what drive our betting decisions. Here are some examples.
*At the start of the NFL season, we believe that the New England Patriots are the strongest team in the AFC. We confidently predict that they’ll win the conference.
*There’s an upcoming game between the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins. We believe the Bills are comfortably better than the Dolphins, so they should have no problem covering the four point spread.
*The Atlanta Falcons are just about to play the New Orleans Saints. We believe both teams have a good offense and a weak defense. We therefore expect the game to go over the posted total of 42 points.
These are all very simple examples of how our views can lead to fairly obvious predictions and expectations. Things aren’t always so clear-cut of course, but it’s important that we have faith in our views when we feel strongly about them.
On the flip side, we need to be willing to change our opinions when necessary. It’s easy to be so devoted to our opinions that we never allow anything to change them. As a result, when doing our research and analysis we have a tendency to focus only on the information and data that supports our opinion. We ignore anything that might suggest it could be wrong. This tendency is known as confirmation bias, and it can be problematic for football bettors. Part of the problem is that most bettors don’t even realize that this particular bias exists.
Like most cognitive biases, confirmation bias primarily affects our subconscious. It’s not always easy to recognize that it’s affecting us though. We instinctively pay attention to anything that reinforces our existing beliefs, while disregarding anything that challenges them. We’re not doing this deliberately; actually, most of the time we don’t even realize that we’re doing it.How are we supposed to overcome confirmation bias then?
The simple answer is that we can’t. Not completely anyway. This is just the way our brains work. Our personal subjectivities are always going to be there, no matter how objective we try to be. Even if we collect all the necessary data and information and attempt to review it neutrally, there’s always a chance that we’ll subconsciously interpret it in the way that matches our preconceptions. So, then, what can we do? Now that we are fully aware of what confirmation bias is, we have to try our best to recognize when it’s affecting us.
We need to make a conscious effort to always take a step back before placing a wager. This will give us time to review our thought process and check that we’ve taken all the relevant factors into consideration. If we have any doubts, then it doesn’t hurt to look back over things for a second time. While this doesn’t completely eliminate the effects of confirmation, it will help to alleviate them. We should always keep the following thought in the back of our minds too.Data should lead us to a conclusion, not the other way around.
The anchoring effect, or focalism, is a cognitive bias that causes us to place too much weight on the first piece of information we consider when making a decision. Once we have that piece of information, our tendency is to relate all subsequent considerations to it. Here’s a real life example of the anchoring effect in action.We’re considering buying a new television. The model we want is typically priced at around $500 at most outlets. Before we can really think about whether we can justify spending this much money, or whether the pric
https://diarynote-jp.indered.space
*Football Betting Odds
*Football Betting Nfl
*Football Betting Brain Teasers
*Football Betting Brain Games
Betfair Betting Podcast Football.Only Bettor Episode 46: He might have a Lego head but there is a brain in there. Football Betting Line A betting line is a posted number that the online Sportsbook posts for each game in a certain sport. The betting line will have different wager options within the betting line. Bookmakers will post odds on who they think will win the game. One of the first things you should understand about betting on football is the fact that there are several different types of wagers that can be placed. You won’t necessarily use all the different types. On BetBrain you will find football predictions for the Eredivisie, the English Premier League, Spanish LaLiga, German & Austian Bundesliga and much more – with of course the tips for betting on football, tennis, Hochey. Tips, forecasts and predictions for football. Over 2.5 Goal bet is a winner. The simple reality is that it choosing correctly from two options is easier than choosing correctly from 3 possibilities. In an Over or under 2.5 goal bet there is no draw. 3 or more goals wins an over bet and 2 or less goals wins an under 2.5 goal bet.The novice football bettor may be a bit overwhelmed when they first create an account at an online Sportsbook and then look at the posted NFL betting lines. Most bets with your buddy will be on what NFL team will win straight up or who will cover the spread. This guide give you the basic types of Football wager types associated with a betting line. Football Betting Line A betting line is a posted number that the online Sportsbook posts for each game in a certain sport. The betting line will have different wager options within the betting line. Bookmakers will post odds on who they think will win the game. The betting line will usually show a favorite and an underdog. The example below will show what a NFL betting line looks like at one of our recommended Sportsbooks Bovada.com . Moneyline Wager The Moneyline wager means you are picking who you think will win the game straight up. In the example above, the Moneyline odds on the New York Giants are +140. In this example the New York Giants are the underdog. The +140 means that for every $100 you wager you will win $140. You do not have to wager $100. The betting line is a payout ratio odds and will be scaled to your actual wager. The favorite in this example is the Detroit Lions denoted by the -160. You have to risk $160 to win $100. NFL Point Spread Wager The Point Spread is one of the most popular wagers in NFL Football betting. You need to cover the Point Spread to win your wager. For example the Favorite in this game is the Detroit Lions as they have a point spread of -3(-110). For you to win your wager, the Detroit Lions would have a final score beating the New York Giants by 4 or more points. The (-110) in brackets is the ’juice’ or ’vig’ on the wager. Sportsbooks take a standard 10% commission on all wagers. If there is not a -110 beside the point spread it is usually assumed 10% juice. The Underdog in the point spread is the New York Giants +3(-110). For you to win your wager the NY Giants could lose the game by 2 points or less. If the final is score is a margin of 3 points then the wager would be graded a PUSH and the wager amount would be returned to you. NFL Total Wager A Total Wager is a bet on the OVER/UNDER for the Total Score at the end of the game of the combined teams. In this betting line the TOTAL is 33 (-110). For you to WIN the OVER TOTAL wager the final score would have to be 34 points combined for both teams. If the TOTAL score is exactly 33 then the wager would be graded a PUSH and your wager would be returned to you. The NFL betting line in the above example is for the full game. An NFL betting line can also be posted for 1st Quarters(1Q), 1st Half(1H) and 2ND Half(2H). Not all Sportsbooks post 1Q lines for all football games. Professional bettors are known to profit on 1H and 1Q wagers because they are able to handicap NFL games accurately because many NFL coaches script their first half plays. Moreover, 2H bets are very popular because you are able to see how well the team is playing in the first half. Circled NFL Line Occasionally you will see a GREEN or RED box around a NFL betting line. When a NFL Point Spread, Moneyline or Total betting line is boxed RED or GREEN this is referred to as a CIRCLED Line. It is also referred to as GREEN or RED Boxed. Green Circle NFL Betting Line A GREEN circle means that there are higher bet limits on the betting line and there are no betting restrictions. Very popular NFL nationally televised games are usually GREEN circled due to their popularity. Red Circle NFL Betting Line A RED Circle line is one of the most common questions asked by new online Football gamblers. A RED circle line means that there are lower bet limits (usually $500 bet max.) and the bet option cannot be included in Parlays, Teasers, IF Bets and Round Robin Bets. Bookmakers RED circle games to reduce Risk to the Sportsbook. An NFL Game is usually RED circled when a key player is uncertain to play like if QB Peyton Manning was uncertain to play right up to game time. A game may also be RED Circled due to severe whether conditions that could affect the OVER/UNDER Line. Bookmakers will not tell you why they circle games. Each Bookmaker will have their own policy that is set by their risk management team that is headed by their head line maker. Most RED boxed games are removed several hours before kickoff or when a Sportsbook gets accurate information to put out new NFL betting line.
Do you know what sets the most successful football bettors in the world apart from the rest? You might think that it’s their extensive football knowledge, or their excellent ability to make predictions. Maybe you think it’s because they’re really good with numbers, or that they’re able to consistently pick the right strategies to use.
Everything mentioned above will definitely help! It’s very difficult to make money from football betting without knowing a lot about the sport itself and the teams and players. It’s also difficult without certain skills and a solid understanding of the strategy involved. Still, none of these things are what REALLY make the difference.
The very best football bettors excel at objective thinking. They’re able to calmly assess all the relevant information at their disposal, and make rational decisions based on their findings. This is ultimately the key to making money.
And it’s a LOT harder than it sounds.
It’s easy to believe we’re thinking objectively when we’re actually not. There are all kinds of things that influence our decision-making processes, most of which we’re totally oblivious to. Our emotions can affect us without us knowing, for example, and there are various aspects of our own psychology that do the same.
To be more specific, our brains are prone to what are known as cognitive biases. These biases can essentially force us into thinking irrationally or illogically. They’re intrinsically part of our psyche, and they typically affect us subconsciously. They can have a huge impact on the way we interpret information, the way we act and the way we make decisions.
Our cognitive biases can, and do, affect many areas of our lives: sometimes in a positive way, but sometimes in a negative way. In this article we look at some of the biases that affect us when we’re betting on football. We explain how they manifest themselves in relation to our betting, and how we can try to overcome any negative effects they may have.Desirability Bias
This is one of the most common biases that affect football bettors. Since most people who bet on football are also fans of the sport, they often have their favorite teams and players. They probably even have teams and players that they’d rather do without. This is an acceptable attitude for a football fan, but it can create problems from a betting perspective. Betting crypto coin.
In the context of betting, desirability bias refers to our tendency to bet on what we WANT to happen. It’s basically a more scientific term for “wishful thinking” or “betting with your heart and not your head.” Whether they realize it or not, most sports bettors are influenced by desirability bias at some point in their career.
Recreational bettors have nothing to worry about. They aren’t overly concerned about whether or not they win or lose anyways, since they bet mostly for the entertainment. They want to win, of course, but they don’t mind losing as long as they’re having fun. And, for many of them, their idea of fun is simply to put a few bucks down on their favorite team each week. Every time their team loses, they have to deal with the fact that they are also losing money. On the other hand, every time their team wins, they are rewarded with some extra cash in their pockets.
Desirability bias IS an issue for serious bettors though. When our goal is to make money, we can’t really afford to let our hearts rule our heads. This will almost certainly cost us money in the long run, as we won’t be making rational decisions. Thankfully, there’s a relatively easy way for us to prevent the negative effects of desirability bias.Avoid betting on games involving our favorite team(s).
This is a very simple solution, but it’s an effective one. It does mean missing out on a few betting opportunities, but that’s a small price to pay if it saves us money. Anyway, there are plenty of other football games to bet on. It shouldn’t be too difficult to avoid games that involve our favorite teams. It’s also advisable to avoid any teams that we particularly dislike too.
Of course, it’s not necessary to take this fairly drastic step when we’re confident that we can make rational decisions even when we’re emotionally invested in the outcome. We just have to make sure that we’re always aware of the potential for desirability bias. We must also be careful that we don’t overcompensate by always looking to bet AGAINST our favorite teams. This can be just as costly.
It shouldn’t come as a surprise to hear that people hate to lose. What might surprise you though is the fact that people hate to lose significantly more than they enjoy winning. This can backed up by numerous studies. It basically means that our brains are wired in such a way that the negative feelings we get from losing something are far stronger than the positive feelings we get from gaining something.
Our negative feelings towards losing are so strong that loss aversion becomes inevitable. Instinctively, we always try to avoid a loss, and that affects our ability to make sound decisions. In theory it prevents us from being reckless, but it can also lead to us making bad decisions.Most electrical items come with a standard warranty that covers breakdown or failure in the first year or two. When buying these items, we usually have the option to purchase an extended warranty. These extended warranties rarely provide true value for our money, but many of us purchase them anyway. That’s a prime example of loss aversion at play. We’re so “scared” of losing the item (i.e. when it stops working) that we’re prepared to pay higher odds than necessary to prevent that loss.
Buying an extended warranty at an inflated price won’t cause too much damage. However, it serves to highlight the fact that loss aversion can actually COST us money. Our determination to avoid losses, whether consciously or sub-consciously, affects our ability to think rationally and make balanced decisions. We don’t properly compare the risk versus reward, but instead we just focus on what’s at risk.
This can be disastrous when we’re betting on football (or any sport for that matter), as calculating risk versus reward is EXACTLY what we should be doing. If we’re too concerned about exposing ourselves to potential losses, then we’ll never make good betting decisions.
We realize that a bettor being susceptible to loss aversion doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. After all, the purpose of betting is to risk losing in exchange for the chance of winning. If we were THAT worried about losing, we wouldn’t be betting at all would we? This isn’t necessarily true. Even people who don’t bet are prepared to accept the risk of losing for the chance of winning. (Consider the extended warranty example we explained above.) Everyone can be affected by loss aversion, just in different ways.
There are two main ways in which loss aversion can affect us when we’re betting on football.
*A tendency to favor the “safer” option.
*A desire to recover losses.
A tendency to favor the safer option makes perfect sense. If we’re worried about losing, then we’d naturally feel inclined to always bet on the most likely outcome. And this is exactly what a lot of bettors do. Loss aversion is one reason why so many people only ever bet on the favorite. Backing the favorite is perceived to offer the best chance of winning, and therefore minimize the risk of losing.
The problem is that backing the favorite doesn’t ALWAYS offer the best chance of winning when betting on football. The logic holds true when backing the favorite on the moneyline, but most football bettors bet on the point spread. Point spreads are designed to give each team a (theoretically) equal chance of covering. So when point spreads are involved, backing the favorite to cover requires the same amount of risk as backing the underdog to cover.Football Betting Odds
In any case, as bettors we shouldn’t be concerned with looking for the least risky option. Instead, our focus should be to identify where the value lies. This means evaluating the risk versus reward, and getting our money down when the potential reward outweighs the risk. Sometimes this will mean placing a high risk/high reward wager. Other times it will mean placing a low risk/low reward wager. The point is that we must try to ignore our natural instinct for loss aversion, and focus on finding value instead. This is something we explain more thoroughly in the article listed below.
Loss aversion doesn’t just affect how we think BEFORE making our bets. It also affects how we think afterwards. When we win, we’re obviously happy. And when we lose, we’re obviously disappointed. On top of being disappointed, our natural instinct is to try to recover our losses.
Successful football bettors tend to be extremely disciplined, so they’re able to overcome that instinct. Bettors that aren’t so disciplined, however, can act impulsively and start chasing their losses. This often leads to even more losses, and if this cycle continues to repeat itself, they can lose A LOT of money. We’re sad to report that many bettors have actually lost their entire bankroll this way. Some have even lost money that they can’t afford to lose.
Ironically, this loss is a direct result of loss aversion. By following our instinct to recover our losses, we can actually end up losing even more. So it’s vital that we overcome our instinct here, and remain disciplined at all times. We have to accept our losses and just move on. Of course, this is easier said than done. The key is to set ourselves strict rules about how much we stake and when, and then make sure we stick to them. This is the basic concept behind bankroll management, which we discuss in detail in the following article.Confirmation Bias
We all rely on our own beliefs and opinions when betting on football. They’re ultimately what drive our betting decisions. Here are some examples.
*At the start of the NFL season, we believe that the New England Patriots are the strongest team in the AFC. We confidently predict that they’ll win the conference.
*There’s an upcoming game between the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins. We believe the Bills are comfortably better than the Dolphins, so they should have no problem covering the four point spread.
*The Atlanta Falcons are just about to play the New Orleans Saints. We believe both teams have a good offense and a weak defense. We therefore expect the game to go over the posted total of 42 points.
These are all very simple examples of how our views can lead to fairly obvious predictions and expectations. Things aren’t always so clear-cut of course, but it’s important that we have faith in our views when we feel strongly about them.
On the flip side, we need to be willing to change our opinions when necessary. It’s easy to be so devoted to our opinions that we never allow anything to change them. As a result, when doing our research and analysis we have a tendency to focus only on the information and data that supports our opinion. We ignore anything that might suggest it could be wrong. This tendency is known as confirmation bias, and it can be problematic for football bettors. Part of the problem is that most bettors don’t even realize that this particular bias exists.
Like most cognitive biases, confirmation bias primarily affects our subconscious. It’s not always easy to recognize that it’s affecting us though. We instinctively pay attention to anything that reinforces our existing beliefs, while disregarding anything that challenges them. We’re not doing this deliberately; actually, most of the time we don’t even realize that we’re doing it.How are we supposed to overcome confirmation bias then?
The simple answer is that we can’t. Not completely anyway. This is just the way our brains work. Our personal subjectivities are always going to be there, no matter how objective we try to be. Even if we collect all the necessary data and information and attempt to review it neutrally, there’s always a chance that we’ll subconsciously interpret it in the way that matches our preconceptions. So, then, what can we do? Now that we are fully aware of what confirmation bias is, we have to try our best to recognize when it’s affecting us.
We need to make a conscious effort to always take a step back before placing a wager. This will give us time to review our thought process and check that we’ve taken all the relevant factors into consideration. If we have any doubts, then it doesn’t hurt to look back over things for a second time. While this doesn’t completely eliminate the effects of confirmation, it will help to alleviate them. We should always keep the following thought in the back of our minds too.Data should lead us to a conclusion, not the other way around.
The anchoring effect, or focalism, is a cognitive bias that causes us to place too much weight on the first piece of information we consider when making a decision. Once we have that piece of information, our tendency is to relate all subsequent considerations to it. Here’s a real life example of the anchoring effect in action.We’re considering buying a new television. The model we want is typically priced at around $500 at most outlets. Before we can really think about whether we can justify spending this much money, or whether the pric
https://diarynote-jp.indered.space
コメント